How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady through 2026, with no cuts penciled in by most major analysts, yet the crowd-implied probability on this contract sits at 77% for at least one 25-basis-point cut. This divergence between institutional forecasts and market pricing frames the current trade: while J.P. Morgan Global Research continues to see the Fed remaining on hold for the rest of 2026 before hiking in September 2027, interest-rate markets are continuously repricing expectations for a softer path, with TD Securities strategists penciling in three cuts in March, June and September[2][3].

Historically, such probability spikes have preceded actual moves when inflation data softened unexpectedly, as seen in prior cycles where the dot plot shifted from hawkish to dovish within months. The current 77% figure mirrors similar pre-cut sentiment in 2019, when markets priced in cuts before the Fed acted, suggesting traders are betting on a rapid pivot if CPI or employment data disappoints. However, the Fed’s recent dot plot showed nine members projecting at least one hike in 2026, with only one dot for a cut, raising the odds that the 77% may be overconfident if inflation remains sticky[4].

Traders should monitor the July 29, September 16 and October 28 FOMC meetings, where implied probabilities of cuts range from 8.4% to 40.0%[1]. Key catalysts include the next CPI release, non-farm payroll data, and any emergency actions outside scheduled meetings, which would count toward the total. Recent commentary from TD Securities highlights that while the Fed may lack clarity for a January cut, markets are pricing substantially more for March, with potential for three cuts if data supports it[2]. On-chain, this contract resolves via USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, with early settlement to “No” if the cut becomes impossible.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.