Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked since late February 2026, with daily transits collapsing to single digits and a backlog of roughly 500 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. For the 7-day moving average to exceed 60 by the end of June, daily transits would need to surge to 70–100+ almost immediately and sustain that level, requiring over 420 transits in a single week with only 11 days remaining. Historical data shows the 7-day average was just 2.57 as of mid-June, representing a greater than 95% collapse from pre-war norms, while expert estimates project traffic will only reach 40–50 ships per day within 30 days. The sheer mechanical difficulty of raising a lagging 7-day average from single digits to over 60 in under two weeks makes this outcome highly improbable, despite minor possibilities like a rapid rush of backlogged ships or data anomalies.

On Polymarket, this contract trades at a 1% probability for “Yes”, priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens that settle automatically upon IMF PortWatch publishing the required data. Traders should monitor the Joint Maritime Information Centre’s announcement on 27 June regarding a widened route near Oman, which challenges Iran’s control but does not guarantee immediate commercial normalization. Shipping experts warn that undefined transit conditions, toll structures, and legal parameters continue to discourage ship owners, with reinstating pre-conflict schedules expected to take weeks or months. A recent CNBC report notes that even with a “delicate ceasefire” between the US and Iran, regular traffic is unlikely to resume soon, as Iran’s reopening remains conditional on military coordination and technical constraints. The situation remains unresolved until all vessels exit the strait and hundreds of thousands of mariners at ports in India, Oman, and Pakistan can resume transport to the Persian Gulf.

Given the current crowd-implied probability of 1%, the market reflects deep skepticism about any near-term return to normalcy. The resolution depends entirely on IMF PortWatch data, which excludes ships not reported, meaning even if traffic physically increases, the metric may not reflect it if AIS broadcasting remains inconsistent. With only 11 days left before the settlement window closes, the mechanical lag of the 7-day average makes a sudden spike to 60+ virtually impossible unless an unprecedented volume of ships transits simultaneously. While the widened route announced by the US Navy indicates a challenge to Iran’s control, it does not yet overcome the logistical and security constraints that have kept traffic suppressed. The market’s pricing aligns with expert projections that a return to pre-war levels will take roughly eight weeks, far beyond the June 30 deadline.

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Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.