Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, Shanghai will experience its peak daily heat at the Pudong International Airport, where the highest temperature recorded will determine the outcome of this prediction market. The contract currently prices at 32% YES on Polymarket, reflecting a cautious crowd view that the temperature may fall within the targeted range. Traders interacting with this USDC-settled conditional token on the Polygon network are betting on whether the heatwave will breach the threshold, with the settlement clock ticking toward 12:00 UTC on the resolution date.

Historical data frames this probability against typical June conditions at Pudong, where daily highs climb from 77°F to 83°F (25°C to 28°C), rarely exceeding 92°F (33°C) [1][5]. Recent comparable cases, such as the 25°C peak recorded on 16 June 2026, suggest that temperatures often hover near the lower end of the summer range unless a significant heat event occurs [2]. The current 32% YES implies the market expects a moderate day, consistent with the gradual decrease in solar energy and constant wind speeds typical of late June [1].

Traders should monitor the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s daily forecast updates and any sudden shifts in the East Asian monsoon system, which can trigger rapid temperature spikes. A recent report from AccuWeather forecasts daily highs between 80°F and 85°F (27°C to 29°C) for June 2026, with precipitation peaking in this month [6][7]. Any announcement of a typhoon or heavy rain system approaching the region could suppress temperatures, while a clear, dry spell might push readings toward the upper limit, directly influencing the conditional token’s value on-chain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.