Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is currently closed to commercial shipping, with transit calls near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 vessels per day. This ongoing crisis has virtually shut the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, forcing tankers to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope and tripling spot rates for Gulf-to-Asia routes.

Historically, similar chokepoint closures have persisted for months or years without rapid recovery, framing the current 23% crowd-implied probability as a realistic assessment rather than an optimistic outlier. Recent data from late June shows the 7-day moving average of transit calls at just 13.14, far below the 60 required for a “Yes” resolution, and traders note that even brief reopenings have failed to sustain normal traffic levels.

Key catalysts for traders include any official announcements from regional powers regarding the reopening of the strait, scheduled diplomatic talks, or shifts in tanker spot rates that might signal renewed commercial interest. According to the Strait of Hormuz Live Tracker, commercial shipping remains suspended after a brief reopening, with the estimated daily economic cost exceeding $4 billion, making a return to normal traffic by mid-July 2026 a highly uncertain outcome dependent on geopolitical de-escalation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.