Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Platform comparison

Market context

On the board, Viktor Orbán is the only leader who has already lost power before 2027, having been defeated in Hungary’s April 2026 election by Péter Magyar’s Tisza party. This historic result effectively resolves the market, leaving the current crowd-implied probability at 0% for any other leader on the list—Trump, Putin, Xi, Netanyahu, Zelenskyy, Milei, Takaichi, or Newsom—to be permanently removed before the settlement window closes. All other leaders show no credible near-term threats to their tenure, with no credible impeachment, removal, or forced resignation scenarios in play.

For traders monitoring on-chain mechanics, the contract settles via USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, where a permanent removal—not a resignation announcement, election loss, or temporary suspension—triggers the payout. Recent news from Hungary confirms Orbán’s exit was permanent, with no caretaker role retained, satisfying the market’s strict resolution criteria. Traders should watch for any sudden announcements of forced removals, such as impeachment-and-removal outcomes or term-expiration without renewal, but current data from sources like Kalshi and Perplexity indicates none are imminent. With settlement ending 31 December 2026, the market is effectively closed, and no further price movement is expected unless an unforeseen permanent removal occurs.

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Methodology

We track Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.